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Ajax vs Heerenveen Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips

Netherlands · EredivisieSun, 16 Aug 2026

Ajax

LWWWW

Sun, 16 Aug 202615:45

2 : 2

Full time

Heerenveen

LWWWW

Pre-match win probability

65.4%Ajax20%Draw14.6%Heerenveen

Our prediction

1X · Ajax

Ajax vs Heerenveen listed tip from the board.

Odds1.1
Confidence65.4%
ResultGraded
Pre-match model probabilityPick and odds as published before kick-off
  • Ajax 65.4%
  • Draw 20%
  • Heerenveen 14.6%

Season statistics

Eredivisie · 10 matches each · highlighted side is stronger

AjaxHeerenveen
Goals scored (avg)
2.51.8
Goals conceded (avg)Lower is better
1.31.1

Recent form

Last matches · newest first

Ajax6W 2D 2L in last 10
  • 31 OctAjax1 – 0AZ AlkmaarW
  • 25 OctSparta Rotterdam1 – 2AjaxW
  • 22 OctAjax2 – 0AtalantaW
  • 18 OctGroningen2 – 5AjaxW
  • 15 OctHNK Hajduk Split2 – 1AjaxL
  • 10 OctAjax1 – 1NEC NijmegenD
  • 19 SeptAjax2 – 2ExcelsiorD
  • 15 SeptAjax5 – 1Willem IIW
  • 12 SeptFortuna Sittard1 – 5AjaxW
  • 5 SeptAjax1 – 3PSV EindhovenL
Heerenveen5W 2D 3L in last 10
  • 31 OctHeerenveen1 – 0NEC NijmegenW
  • 28 OctExcelsior Maassluis0 – 2HeerenveenW
  • 24 OctADO Den Haag2 – 3HeerenveenW
  • 16 OctHeerenveen4 – 0ExcelsiorW
  • 9 OctPSV Eindhoven2 – 0HeerenveenL
  • 19 SeptSparta Rotterdam0 – 4HeerenveenW
  • 13 SeptHeerenveen0 – 0TelstarD
  • 6 SeptHeerenveen2 – 3AZ AlkmaarL
  • 30 AugWillem II2 – 2HeerenveenD
  • 22 AugHeerenveen0 – 2PEC ZwolleL
H2H
Head to headAjax 6W · 2D · Heerenveen 1W · 3.4 goals a game
  • 17 MayHeerenveen0 – 0Ajax
  • 1 NovAjax1 – 1Heerenveen
  • 19 JanHeerenveen0 – 2Ajax
  • 11 AugAjax1 – 0Heerenveen
  • 11 FebHeerenveen3 – 2Ajax
  • 5 NovAjax4 – 1Heerenveen
  • 12 MarHeerenveen2 – 4Ajax
  • 10 SeptAjax5 – 0Heerenveen
  • 11 MayAjax5 – 0Heerenveen

Betting markets

Bookmaker prices with margin removed

Goal lineOverUnder
0.5 goals23.4% · 1.011.1% · 21
1.5 goals21.3% · 1.113.6% · 6.5
2.5 goals16.9% · 1.48.2% · 2.88
3.5 goals12.4% · 1.9113.1% · 1.8

Both teams to score

Yes60.9%
No39.1%

Double chance

1X71.4%
X228.6%

Match result

Ajax1.45
Draw4.75
Heerenveen6.5

Both teams to score

Yes60.9% · 1.53
No39.1% · 2.38

1X

Chance71.4%
Odds1.1

X2

Chance28.6%
Odds2.75

Ajax

Chance65.4%
Odds1.45

Draw

Chance20%
Odds4.75

Heerenveen

Chance14.6%
Odds6.5

No half-time prices stored.

No corner prices stored.

Model comparison

Our pick: 1X at 1.1

AjaxHeerenveen
Recent form54%46%
Attack58%42%
Defence47%53%
Goals model58%42%
Head-to-head78%22%
Overall82%18%

Trends

Trend · Eredivisie

Ajax scored 2.5 per game in the last 10.

Trend · Eredivisie

Ajax conceded 1.3 per game in the last 10.

Trend · Eredivisie

Kept a clean sheet in 2 of those 10.

Trend · Eredivisie

Over 2.5 goals in 7 of those 10.

Ajax vs Heerenveen: prediction & preview

Netherlands · Eredivisie · Sun, 16 Aug 2026

Ajax meet Heerenveen in the Netherlands, Eredivisie on 16 August 2026 at 15:45 (Africa/Lagos). The recorded score is 2–2.

On the 1X2 market the shortest price is Ajax at 1.45. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, that outcome carries about 65.4% of the implied chance, with the other two outcomes sharing the rest. A short price means the market rates that side more likely. It is not a certainty, and the margin means the three raw probabilities add up to more than 100% before they are scaled.

The 2.5-goal line is priced shorter on Over 2.5 (1.4, about 67.3% after the margin). Both teams to score is shorter on Yes at 1.53.

Season points-per-game rates were not stored on this fixture yet. The odds chart still shows how the 1X2, goals, and both-teams markets are priced.

Ajax vs Heerenveen FAQs

4 questions

What time is the Ajax vs Heerenveen match?

Kickoff is 15:45 on 16 August 2026, shown in Africa/Lagos.

What are the safest picks for Ajax vs Heerenveen?

Ajax is the safest-priced 1X2 pick at 1.45. The margin-adjusted share is about 65.4%.

What are the over and under 2.5 prices?

Over 2.5 is 1.4 and under 2.5 is 2.88.

Do both teams score on this match?

Both teams to score is priced at 1.53. That is a market price, not a forecast that both sides will score.