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Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips

Netherlands · EredivisieSat, 5 Sept 2026

Ajax

2nd in table · 24 pts

LWWWW

Sat, 5 Sept 202619:00

1 : 3

Full time

PSV Eindhoven

3rd in table · 23 pts

LLWDW

Pre-match win probability

35.4%Ajax25.5%Draw39.1%PSV Eindhoven

Our prediction

1X · Ajax

Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven listed tip from the board.

Odds1.57
Confidence39.1%
ResultGraded
Pre-match model probabilityPick and odds as published before kick-off
  • Ajax 35.4%
  • Draw 25.5%
  • PSV Eindhoven 39.1%

Season statistics

Eredivisie · 9 matches each · highlighted side is stronger

AjaxPSV Eindhoven
Goals scored (avg)
2.72.1
Goals conceded (avg)Lower is better
1.11
Wins
77
Played
1111

Recent form

Last matches · newest first

Ajax6W 2D 1L in last 9
  • 31 OctAjax1 – 0AZ AlkmaarW
  • 25 OctSparta Rotterdam1 – 2AjaxW
  • 22 OctAjax2 – 0AtalantaW
  • 18 OctGroningen2 – 5AjaxW
  • 15 OctHNK Hajduk Split2 – 1AjaxL
  • 10 OctAjax1 – 1NEC NijmegenD
  • 19 SeptAjax2 – 2ExcelsiorD
  • 15 SeptAjax5 – 1Willem IIW
  • 12 SeptFortuna Sittard1 – 5AjaxW
PSV Eindhoven4W 2D 3L in last 9
  • 31 OctPSV Eindhoven7 – 0Willem IIW
  • 25 OctPSV Eindhoven1 – 1FeyenoordD
  • 20 OctFC Porto0 – 1PSV EindhovenW
  • 17 OctADO Den Haag2 – 1PSV EindhovenL
  • 13 OctRB Leipzig1 – 0PSV EindhovenL
  • 9 OctPSV Eindhoven2 – 0HeerenveenW
  • 20 SeptTwente3 – 2PSV EindhovenL
  • 13 SeptPSV Eindhoven4 – 1Sparta RotterdamW
  • 10 SeptPSV Eindhoven1 – 1Shakhtar DonetskD
H2H
Head to headAjax 2W · 4D · PSV Eindhoven 3W · 3.6 goals a game
  • 2 MayAjax2 – 2PSV Eindhoven
  • 21 SeptPSV Eindhoven2 – 2Ajax
  • 30 MarPSV Eindhoven0 – 2Ajax
  • 2 NovAjax3 – 2PSV Eindhoven
  • 3 FebAjax1 – 1PSV Eindhoven
  • 29 OctPSV Eindhoven5 – 2Ajax
  • 30 AprAjax1 – 1PSV Eindhoven
  • 23 AprPSV Eindhoven3 – 0Ajax
  • 6 NovAjax1 – 2PSV Eindhoven

Betting markets

Bookmaker prices with margin removed

Goal lineOverUnder
0.5 goals23.5% · 1.011% · 23
1.5 goals22% · 1.083% · 8
2.5 goals17.9% · 1.337% · 3.4
3.5 goals13.2% · 1.812.4% · 1.91

Both teams to score

Yes72.3%
No27.7%

Double chance

1X47.1%
X252.9%

Match result

Ajax2.7
Draw3.75
PSV Eindhoven2.45

Both teams to score

Yes72.3% · 1.3
No27.7% · 3.4

1X

Chance47.1%
Odds1.57

X2

Chance52.9%
Odds1.4

Ajax

Chance35.4%
Odds2.7

Draw

Chance25.5%
Odds3.75

PSV Eindhoven

Chance39.1%
Odds2.45

No half-time prices stored.

No corner prices stored.

Model comparison

Our pick: 1X at 1.57

AjaxPSV Eindhoven
Recent form59%41%
Attack56%44%
Defence49%51%
Goals model56%44%
Head-to-head44%56%
Overall48%52%

Trends

Trend · Eredivisie

Ajax scored 2.7 per game in the last 9.

Trend · Eredivisie

Ajax conceded 1.1 per game in the last 9.

Trend · Eredivisie

Kept a clean sheet in 2 of those 9.

Trend · Eredivisie

Over 2.5 goals in 6 of those 9.

Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven: prediction & preview

Netherlands · Eredivisie · Sat, 5 Sept 2026

Ajax meet PSV Eindhoven in the Netherlands, Eredivisie on 5 September 2026 at 19:00 (Africa/Lagos). The recorded score is 1–3.

On the 1X2 market the shortest price is PSV Eindhoven at 2.45. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, that outcome carries about 39.1% of the implied chance, with the other two outcomes sharing the rest. A short price means the market rates that side more likely. It is not a certainty, and the margin means the three raw probabilities add up to more than 100% before they are scaled.

The 2.5-goal line is priced shorter on Over 2.5 (1.33, about 71.9% after the margin). Both teams to score is shorter on Yes at 1.3.

Season points-per-game rates were not stored on this fixture yet. The odds chart still shows how the 1X2, goals, and both-teams markets are priced.

Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven FAQs

4 questions

What time is the Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven match?

Kickoff is 19:00 on 5 September 2026, shown in Africa/Lagos.

What are the safest picks for Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven?

PSV Eindhoven is the safest-priced 1X2 pick at 2.45. The margin-adjusted share is about 39.1%.

What are the over and under 2.5 prices?

Over 2.5 is 1.33 and under 2.5 is 3.4.

Do both teams score on this match?

Both teams to score is priced at 1.3. That is a market price, not a forecast that both sides will score.