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Albirex Niigata vs Sagan Tosu Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips

Japan · J2 LeagueWed, 21 Oct 2026

Albirex Niigata

Wed, 21 Oct 202611:00

2 : 1

Full time

Sagan Tosu

WWWLL

Pre-match win probability

28.3%Albirex Niigata29.2%Draw42.5%Sagan Tosu

Our prediction

Sagan Tosu

Sagan Tosu is the shortest 1X2 price in the stored market.

Odds2.2
Confidence42.5%
ResultGraded
Pre-match model probabilityPick and odds as published before kick-off
  • Albirex Niigata 28.3%
  • Draw 29.2%
  • Sagan Tosu 42.5%

Season statistics

J2 League · highlighted side is stronger

Albirex NiigataSagan Tosu
Goals scored (avg)
–1
Goals conceded (avg)Lower is better
–1.1

Recent form

Last matches · newest first

Albirex Niigata0W 0D 0L in last 0
    Sagan Tosu5W 0D 4L in last 9
    • 31 OctJubilo Iwata2 – 0Sagan TosuL
    • 28 OctSagan Tosu0 – 2Kawasaki FrontaleL
    • 25 OctSagan Tosu2 – 0Vanraure HachinoheW
    • 17 OctSagan Tosu2 – 1Omiya ArdijaW
    • 14 OctSagan Tosu2 – 1Avispa FukuokaW
    • 10 OctSagan Tosu1 – 0Fujieda MYFCW
    • 4 OctBlaublitz Akita1 – 0Sagan TosuL
    • 29 SeptSagan Tosu2 – 1Tokyo VerdyW
    • 26 SeptMontedio Yamagata2 – 0Sagan TosuL
    H2H
    Head to headAlbirex Niigata 3W · 2D · Sagan Tosu 4W · 2.7 goals a game
    • 6 JulAlbirex Niigata3 – 4Sagan Tosu
    • 24 FebSagan Tosu1 – 2Albirex Niigata
    • 21 OctAlbirex Niigata1 – 1Sagan Tosu
    • 20 MaySagan Tosu2 – 0Albirex Niigata
    • 29 OctAlbirex Niigata1 – 0Sagan Tosu
    • 8 AprSagan Tosu3 – 0Albirex Niigata
    • 15 MarSagan Tosu2 – 2Albirex Niigata
    • 27 AugSagan Tosu1 – 0Albirex Niigata
    • 25 JunAlbirex Niigata1 – 0Sagan Tosu

    Betting markets

    Bookmaker prices with margin removed

    Goal lineOverUnder
    0.5 goals22% · 1.072.6% · 9
    1.5 goals17.3% · 1.367.9% · 3
    2.5 goals11% · 2.1514.1% · 1.67
    3.5 goals6.3% · 3.7518.8% · 1.25

    Both teams to score

    Yes50%
    No50%

    Double chance

    1X43.8%
    X256.2%

    Match result

    Albirex Niigata3.3
    Draw3.2
    Sagan Tosu2.2

    Both teams to score

    Yes50% · 1.83
    No50% · 1.83

    1X

    Chance43.8%
    Odds1.67

    X2

    Chance56.2%
    Odds1.3

    Albirex Niigata

    Chance28.3%
    Odds3.3

    Draw

    Chance29.2%
    Odds3.2

    Sagan Tosu

    Chance42.5%
    Odds2.2

    No half-time prices stored.

    No corner prices stored.

    Model comparison

    Our pick: Sagan Tosu at 2.2

    Albirex NiigataSagan Tosu
    Recent form6%94%
    Attack50%50%
    Defence34%66%
    Goals model50%50%
    Head-to-head44%56%
    Overall40%60%

    Trends

    Trend · J2 League

    Sagan Tosu scored 1 per game in the last 9.

    Trend · J2 League

    Sagan Tosu conceded 1.1 per game in the last 9.

    Trend · J2 League

    Failed to score in 4 of those 9.

    Trend · J2 League

    Kept a clean sheet in 2 of those 9.

    Albirex Niigata vs Sagan Tosu: prediction & preview

    Japan · J2 League · Wed, 21 Oct 2026

    Albirex Niigata meet Sagan Tosu in the Japan, J2 League on 21 October 2026 at 11:00 (Africa/Lagos). The recorded score is 2–1.

    On the 1X2 market the shortest price is Sagan Tosu at 2.2. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, that outcome carries about 42.5% of the implied chance, with the other two outcomes sharing the rest. A short price means the market rates that side more likely. It is not a certainty, and the margin means the three raw probabilities add up to more than 100% before they are scaled.

    The 2.5-goal line is priced shorter on Under 2.5 (1.67, about 56.3% after the margin). Both teams to score is shorter on Yes at 1.83.

    Season points-per-game rates were not stored on this fixture yet. The odds chart still shows how the 1X2, goals, and both-teams markets are priced.

    Albirex Niigata vs Sagan Tosu FAQs

    4 questions

    What time is the Albirex Niigata vs Sagan Tosu match?

    Kickoff is 11:00 on 21 October 2026, shown in Africa/Lagos.

    What are the safest picks for Albirex Niigata vs Sagan Tosu?

    Sagan Tosu is the safest-priced 1X2 pick at 2.2. The margin-adjusted share is about 42.5%.

    What are the over and under 2.5 prices?

    Over 2.5 is 2.15 and under 2.5 is 1.67.

    Do both teams score on this match?

    Both teams to score is priced at 1.83. That is a market price, not a forecast that both sides will score.