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Arouca vs Estrela Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips

Portugal · Primeira LigaSun, 11 Oct 2026

Arouca

5th in table · 17 pts

LDWWW

Sun, 11 Oct 202620:30

1 : 0

Full time

Estrela

12th in table · 10 pts

DLWLL

Pre-match win probability

42.9%Arouca28.6%Draw28.6%Estrela

Our prediction

Arouca

Arouca is the shortest 1X2 price in the stored market.

Odds2.2
Confidence42.9%
ResultGraded
Pre-match model probabilityPick and odds as published before kick-off
  • Arouca 42.9%
  • Draw 28.6%
  • Estrela 28.6%

Season statistics

Primeira Liga · 9 matches each · highlighted side is stronger

AroucaEstrela
Goals scored (avg)
1.71.7
Goals conceded (avg)Lower is better
1.11.9
Wins
52
Played
910

Recent form

Last matches · newest first

Arouca5W 2D 2L in last 9
  • 1 NovArouca1 – 0NacionalW
  • 24 OctAlverca0 – 1AroucaW
  • 18 OctCF Os Belenenses3 – 4AroucaW
  • 19 SeptSporting CP2 – 2AroucaD
  • 13 SeptArouca1 – 2Santa ClaraL
  • 7 SeptEstoril0 – 0AroucaD
  • 29 AugArouca2 – 1MaritimoW
  • 23 AugFC Porto2 – 0AroucaL
  • 16 AugArouca4 – 0MoreirenseW
Estrela3W 3D 3L in last 9
  • 31 OctMoreirense2 – 1EstrelaL
  • 24 OctEstrela0 – 2Casa PiaL
  • 17 OctFazendense1 – 2EstrelaW
  • 20 SeptEstrela0 – 2Academico ViseuL
  • 14 SeptRio Ave3 – 3EstrelaD
  • 10 SeptEstrela2 – 1SC BragaW
  • 5 SeptEstrela2 – 2FamalicaoD
  • 30 AugNacional2 – 3EstrelaW
  • 15 AugAlverca2 – 2EstrelaD
H2H
Head to headArouca 3W · 1D · Estrela 2W · 2.3 goals a game
  • 19 AprArouca1 – 0Estrela
  • 7 DecEstrela3 – 1Arouca
  • 19 AprArouca1 – 0Estrela
  • 9 DecEstrela2 – 1Arouca
  • 5 MayArouca0 – 0Estrela
  • 28 DecEstrela1 – 4Arouca

Betting markets

Bookmaker prices with margin removed

Goal lineOverUnder
0.5 goals22.5% · 1.052.1% · 11
1.5 goals18.9% · 1.256.3% · 3.75
2.5 goals12.8% · 1.8512.1% · 1.95
3.5 goals7.9% · 317.4% · 1.36

Both teams to score

Yes55.7%
No44.3%

Double chance

1X56.2%
X243.8%

Match result

Arouca2.2
Draw3.3
Estrela3.3

Both teams to score

Yes55.7% · 1.67
No44.3% · 2.1

1X

Chance56.2%
Odds1.3

X2

Chance43.8%
Odds1.67

Arouca

Chance42.9%
Odds2.2

Draw

Chance28.6%
Odds3.3

Estrela

Chance28.6%
Odds3.3

No half-time prices stored.

No corner prices stored.

Model comparison

Our pick: Arouca at 2.2

AroucaEstrela
Recent form59%41%
Attack50%50%
Defence63%37%
Goals model50%50%
Head-to-head58%42%
Overall60%40%

Trends

Trend · Primeira Liga

Arouca scored 1.7 per game in the last 9.

Trend · Primeira Liga

Arouca conceded 1.1 per game in the last 9.

Trend · Primeira Liga

Failed to score in 2 of those 9.

Trend · Primeira Liga

Kept a clean sheet in 4 of those 9.

Arouca vs Estrela: prediction & preview

Portugal · Primeira Liga · Sun, 11 Oct 2026

Arouca meet Estrela in the Portugal, Primeira Liga on 11 October 2026 at 20:30 (Africa/Lagos). The recorded score is 1–0.

On the 1X2 market the shortest price is Arouca at 2.2. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, that outcome carries about 42.9% of the implied chance, with the other two outcomes sharing the rest. A short price means the market rates that side more likely. It is not a certainty, and the margin means the three raw probabilities add up to more than 100% before they are scaled.

The 2.5-goal line is priced shorter on Over 2.5 (1.85, about 51.3% after the margin). Both teams to score is shorter on Yes at 1.67.

Season points-per-game rates were not stored on this fixture yet. The odds chart still shows how the 1X2, goals, and both-teams markets are priced.

Arouca vs Estrela FAQs

4 questions

What time is the Arouca vs Estrela match?

Kickoff is 20:30 on 11 October 2026, shown in Africa/Lagos.

What are the safest picks for Arouca vs Estrela?

Arouca is the safest-priced 1X2 pick at 2.2. The margin-adjusted share is about 42.9%.

What are the over and under 2.5 prices?

Over 2.5 is 1.85 and under 2.5 is 1.95.

Do both teams score on this match?

Both teams to score is priced at 1.67. That is a market price, not a forecast that both sides will score.