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Belgium vs Italy Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips

World · UEFA Nations LeagueSun, 15 Nov 2026

Belgium

3rd in table · 9 pts

WLWLW

Sun, 15 Nov 202620:45

vs

Not started

Italy

1st in table · 10 pts

LWDWW

Pre-match win probability

44.1%Belgium25.8%Draw30.1%Italy

Our prediction

X2 · Belgium

Belgium vs Italy listed tip from the board.

Odds1.70
Confidence58.8%
ResultPending
Pre-match model probabilityPick and odds as published before kick-off
  • Belgium 44.1%
  • Draw 25.8%
  • Italy 30.1%

Season statistics

UEFA Nations League · 10 matches each · highlighted side is stronger

BelgiumItaly
Goals scored (avg)
2.11.7
Goals conceded (avg)Lower is better
1.21.1
Wins
33
Played
55

Recent form

Last matches · newest first

Belgium6W 1D 3L in last 10
  • 12 NovTürkiye1 – 2BelgiumW
  • 5 OctFrance4 – 1BelgiumL
  • 2 OctBelgium3 – 0TürkiyeW
  • 28 SeptBelgium0 – 1FranceL
  • 25 SeptItaly0 – 2BelgiumW
  • 10 JulSpain2 – 1BelgiumL
  • 7 JulUSA1 – 4BelgiumW
  • 1 JulBelgium3 – 2SenegalW
  • 27 JunNew Zealand1 – 5BelgiumW
  • 21 JunBelgium0 – 0IranD
Italy6W 2D 2L in last 10
  • 12 NovItaly3 – 1FranceW
  • 5 OctItaly3 – 1TürkiyeW
  • 2 OctFrance1 – 1ItalyD
  • 28 SeptTürkiye1 – 4ItalyW
  • 25 SeptItaly0 – 2BelgiumL
  • 7 JunGreece0 – 1ItalyW
  • 3 JunLuxembourg0 – 1ItalyW
  • 31 MarBosnia & Herzegovina1 – 1ItalyD
  • 26 MarItaly2 – 0Northern IrelandW
  • 16 NovItaly1 – 4NorwayL
H2H
Head to headBelgium 1W · 1D · Italy 4W · 2.5 goals a game
  • 25 SeptItaly0 – 2Belgium
  • 14 NovBelgium0 – 1Italy
  • 10 OctItaly2 – 2Belgium
  • 10 OctItaly2 – 1Belgium
  • 2 JulBelgium1 – 2Italy
  • 13 JunBelgium0 – 2Italy

Betting markets

Bookmaker prices with margin removed

Goal lineOverUnder
0.5 goals22.9% · 1.031.6% · 15
1.5 goals20% · 1.185.2% · 4.5
2.5 goals14.6% · 1.6210.5% · 2.25
3.5 goals9.4% · 2.515.7% · 1.5

Both teams to score

Yes60.9%
No39.1%

Double chance

1X35.2%
1236.8%
X228%

Match result

Belgium2.05
Draw3.5
Italy3

Both teams to score

Yes60.9% · 1.53
No39.1% · 2.38

1X

Chance35.2%
Odds1.35

12

Chance36.8%
Odds1.29

X2

Chance28%
Odds1.7

Belgium

Chance44.1%
Odds2.05

Draw

Chance25.8%
Odds3.5

Italy

Chance30.1%
Odds3

First half result

Belgium36% · 2.5
Draw39.1% · 2.3
Italy25% · 3.6

Half goals

1st over 0.5100% · 1.3

No corner prices stored.

Model comparison

Our pick: X2 at 1.70

BelgiumItaly
Recent form49%51%
Attack55%45%
Defence49%51%
Goals model55%45%
Head-to-head25%75%
Overall59%41%

Trends

Trend · UEFA Nations League

Belgium scored 2.1 per game in the last 10.

Trend · UEFA Nations League

Belgium conceded 1.2 per game in the last 10.

Trend · UEFA Nations League

Failed to score in 2 of those 10.

Trend · UEFA Nations League

Kept a clean sheet in 3 of those 10.

Belgium vs Italy: prediction & preview

World · UEFA Nations League · Sun, 15 Nov 2026

Belgium meet Italy in the World, UEFA Nations League on 15 November 2026 at 20:45 (Africa/Lagos). The numbers below are pre-match prices and team rates. They describe the match. They do not promise a result.

On the 1X2 market the shortest price is Belgium at 2.05. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, that outcome carries about 44.1% of the implied chance, with the other two outcomes sharing the rest. A short price means the market rates that side more likely. It is not a certainty, and the margin means the three raw probabilities add up to more than 100% before they are scaled.

The 2.5-goal line is priced shorter on Over 2.5 (1.62, about 58.1% after the margin). Both teams to score is shorter on Yes at 1.53.

Season points-per-game rates were not stored on this fixture yet. The odds chart still shows how the 1X2, goals, and both-teams markets are priced.

Belgium vs Italy FAQs

4 questions

What time is the Belgium vs Italy match?

Kickoff is 20:45 on 15 November 2026, shown in Africa/Lagos.

What are the safest picks for Belgium vs Italy?

Belgium is the safest-priced 1X2 pick at 2.05. The margin-adjusted share is about 44.1%.

What are the over and under 2.5 prices?

Over 2.5 is 1.62 and under 2.5 is 2.25.

Do both teams score on this match?

Both teams to score is priced at 1.53. That is a market price, not a forecast that both sides will score.