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Italy vs France Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips

World · UEFA Nations LeagueThu, 12 Nov 2026

Italy

2nd in table · 7 pts

WLWDW

Thu, 12 Nov 202620:45

vs

Not started

France

1st in table · 10 pts

LWWDW

Pre-match win probability

22.6%Italy25.8%Draw51.6%France

Our prediction

X2 · Italy

Italy vs France listed tip from the board.

Odds1.22
Confidence82%
ResultPending
Pre-match model probabilityPick and odds as published before kick-off
  • Italy 22.6%
  • Draw 25.8%
  • France 51.6%

Season statistics

UEFA Nations League · 10 matches each · highlighted side is stronger

ItalyFrance
Goals scored (avg)
1.62.1
Goals conceded (avg)Lower is better
11.1
Wins
23
Played
44

Recent form

Last matches · newest first

Italy6W 2D 2L in last 10
  • 5 OctItaly3 – 1TürkiyeW
  • 2 OctFrance1 – 1ItalyD
  • 28 SeptTürkiye1 – 4ItalyW
  • 25 SeptItaly0 – 2BelgiumL
  • 7 JunGreece0 – 1ItalyW
  • 3 JunLuxembourg0 – 1ItalyW
  • 31 MarBosnia & Herzegovina1 – 1ItalyD
  • 26 MarItaly2 – 0Northern IrelandW
  • 16 NovItaly1 – 4NorwayL
  • 13 NovMoldova0 – 2ItalyW
France7W 1D 2L in last 10
  • 5 OctFrance4 – 1BelgiumW
  • 2 OctFrance1 – 1ItalyD
  • 28 SeptBelgium0 – 1FranceW
  • 25 SeptTürkiye0 – 1FranceW
  • 18 JulFrance4 – 6EnglandL
  • 14 JulFrance0 – 2SpainL
  • 9 JulFrance2 – 0MoroccoW
  • 4 JulParaguay0 – 1FranceW
  • 30 JunFrance3 – 0SwedenW
  • 26 JunNorway1 – 4FranceW
H2H
Head to headItaly 2W · 1D · France 2W · 3.2 goals a game
  • 2 OctFrance1 – 1Italy
  • 17 NovItaly1 – 3France
  • 6 SeptFrance1 – 3Italy
  • 1 JunFrance3 – 1Italy
  • 17 JunFrance0 – 2Italy

Betting markets

Bookmaker prices with margin removed

Goal lineOverUnder
0.5 goals22.9% · 1.031.6% · 15
1.5 goals20% · 1.185.2% · 4.5
2.5 goals14.6% · 1.6210.5% · 2.25
3.5 goals9.4% · 2.515.7% · 1.5

Both teams to score

Yes58.9%
No41.1%

Double chance

1X24.3%
1236.8%
X238.9%

Match result

Italy4
Draw3.5
France1.75

Both teams to score

Yes58.9% · 1.57
No41.1% · 2.25

1X

Chance24.3%
Odds1.95

12

Chance36.8%
Odds1.29

X2

Chance38.9%
Odds1.22

Italy

Chance22.6%
Odds4

Draw

Chance25.8%
Odds3.5

France

Chance51.6%
Odds1.75

First half result

Italy21.5% · 4.2
Draw37.6% · 2.4
France41% · 2.2

Half goals

1st over 0.5100% · 1.29

No corner prices stored.

Model comparison

Our pick: X2 at 1.22

ItalyFrance
Recent form48%52%
Attack43%57%
Defence51%49%
Goals model43%57%
Head-to-head50%50%
Overall30%70%

Trends

Trend · UEFA Nations League

Italy scored 1.6 per game in the last 10.

Trend · UEFA Nations League

Italy conceded 1 per game in the last 10.

Trend · UEFA Nations League

Failed to score in 1 of those 10.

Trend · UEFA Nations League

Kept a clean sheet in 4 of those 10.

Italy vs France: prediction & preview

World · UEFA Nations League · Thu, 12 Nov 2026

Italy meet France in the World, UEFA Nations League on 12 November 2026 at 20:45 (Africa/Lagos). The numbers below are pre-match prices and team rates. They describe the match. They do not promise a result.

On the 1X2 market the shortest price is France at 1.75. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, that outcome carries about 51.6% of the implied chance, with the other two outcomes sharing the rest. A short price means the market rates that side more likely. It is not a certainty, and the margin means the three raw probabilities add up to more than 100% before they are scaled.

The 2.5-goal line is priced shorter on Over 2.5 (1.62, about 58.1% after the margin). Both teams to score is shorter on Yes at 1.57. The both-teams-to-score potential is 58%.

Italy are listed at 10 points per game. France are listed at 45 points per game. Points per game is a season rate. It does not include late team news, so treat it as context next to the prices.

Italy vs France FAQs

4 questions

What time is the Italy vs France match?

Kickoff is 20:45 on 12 November 2026, shown in Africa/Lagos.

What are the safest picks for Italy vs France?

France is the safest-priced 1X2 pick at 1.75. The margin-adjusted share is about 51.6%.

What are the over and under 2.5 prices?

Over 2.5 is 1.62 and under 2.5 is 2.25.

Do both teams score on this match?

Both teams to score is priced at 1.57. That is a market price, not a forecast that both sides will score.