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Liverpool Montevideo vs Progreso Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips

Uruguay · Primera DivisiónSat, 3 Oct 2026

Liverpool Montevideo

6th in table · 56 pts

WDWWW

Sat, 3 Oct 202615:00

3 : 2

Full time

Progreso

15th in table · 35 pts

WDWWL

Pre-match win probability

54.4%Liverpool Montevideo24.9%Draw20.7%Progreso

Our prediction

1X · Liverpool Montevideo

Liverpool Montevideo vs Progreso listed tip from the board.

Odds1.18
Confidence54.4%
ResultGraded
Pre-match model probabilityPick and odds as published before kick-off
  • Liverpool Montevideo 54.4%
  • Draw 24.9%
  • Progreso 20.7%

Season statistics

Primera División · 9 matches each · highlighted side is stronger

Liverpool MontevideoProgreso
Goals scored (avg)
1.21.1
Goals conceded (avg)Lower is better
0.61
Wins
1510
Played
3434

Recent form

Last matches · newest first

Liverpool Montevideo6W 2D 1L in last 9
  • 25 OctClub Nacional0 – 1Liverpool MontevideoW
  • 21 OctLiverpool Montevideo1 – 0Cerro LargoW
  • 18 OctLiverpool Montevideo1 – 0PenarolW
  • 10 OctDeportivo Maldonado1 – 1Liverpool MontevideoD
  • 27 SeptCentral Espanol1 – 2Liverpool MontevideoW
  • 23 SeptLiverpool Montevideo3 – 0ColónW
  • 21 SeptLiverpool Montevideo0 – 0Racing MontevideoD
  • 14 SeptAtletico Torque3 – 1Liverpool MontevideoL
  • 6 SeptLiverpool Montevideo1 – 0Boston RiverW
Progreso5W 1D 3L in last 9
  • 1 NovProgreso0 – 2Defensor SportingL
  • 25 OctWanderers0 – 1ProgresoW
  • 17 OctProgreso2 – 0JuventudW
  • 10 OctPenarol1 – 1ProgresoD
  • 26 SeptProgreso2 – 1Racing MontevideoW
  • 19 SeptBoston River1 – 2ProgresoW
  • 16 SeptProgreso0 – 1Club NacionalL
  • 13 SeptProgreso1 – 3CerroL
  • 7 SeptAlbion FC0 – 1ProgresoW
H2H
Head to headLiverpool Montevideo 5W · 2D · Progreso 2W · 3.2 goals a game
  • 31 MarProgreso3 – 3Liverpool Montevideo
  • 26 OctLiverpool Montevideo3 – 1Progreso
  • 27 AprProgreso0 – 2Liverpool Montevideo
  • 3 NovLiverpool Montevideo2 – 1Progreso
  • 28 AprProgreso2 – 1Liverpool Montevideo
  • 3 OctLiverpool Montevideo0 – 1Progreso
  • 4 JunProgreso1 – 3Liverpool Montevideo
  • 30 JanProgreso0 – 4Liverpool Montevideo
  • 8 MarLiverpool Montevideo1 – 1Progreso

Betting markets

Bookmaker prices with margin removed

Goal lineOverUnder
0.5 goals22.6% · 1.052.2% · 11
1.5 goals18.5% · 1.286.8% · 3.5
2.5 goals12.8% · 1.8512.1% · 1.95
3.5 goals7.3% · 3.2517.8% · 1.33

Both teams to score

Yes50%
No50%

Double chance

1X64%
X236%

Match result

Liverpool Montevideo1.65
Draw3.6
Progreso4.33

Both teams to score

Yes50% · 1.83
No50% · 1.83

1X

Chance64%
Odds1.18

X2

Chance36%
Odds2.1

Liverpool Montevideo

Chance54.4%
Odds1.65

Draw

Chance24.9%
Odds3.6

Progreso

Chance20.7%
Odds4.33

No half-time prices stored.

No corner prices stored.

Model comparison

Our pick: 1X at 1.18

Liverpool MontevideoProgreso
Recent form56%44%
Attack52%48%
Defence55%45%
Goals model52%48%
Head-to-head67%33%
Overall72%28%

Trends

Trend · Primera División

Liverpool Montevideo scored 1.2 per game in the last 9.

Trend · Primera División

Liverpool Montevideo conceded 0.6 per game in the last 9.

Trend · Primera División

Failed to score in 1 of those 9.

Trend · Primera División

Kept a clean sheet in 6 of those 9.

Liverpool Montevideo vs Progreso: prediction & preview

Uruguay · Primera División · Sat, 3 Oct 2026

Liverpool Montevideo meet Progreso in the Uruguay, Primera División on 3 October 2026 at 15:00 (Africa/Lagos). The recorded score is 3–2.

On the 1X2 market the shortest price is Liverpool Montevideo at 1.65. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, that outcome carries about 54.4% of the implied chance, with the other two outcomes sharing the rest. A short price means the market rates that side more likely. It is not a certainty, and the margin means the three raw probabilities add up to more than 100% before they are scaled.

The 2.5-goal line is priced shorter on Over 2.5 (1.85, about 51.3% after the margin). Both teams to score is shorter on Yes at 1.83.

Season points-per-game rates were not stored on this fixture yet. The odds chart still shows how the 1X2, goals, and both-teams markets are priced.

Liverpool Montevideo vs Progreso FAQs

4 questions

What time is the Liverpool Montevideo vs Progreso match?

Kickoff is 15:00 on 3 October 2026, shown in Africa/Lagos.

What are the safest picks for Liverpool Montevideo vs Progreso?

Liverpool Montevideo is the safest-priced 1X2 pick at 1.65. The margin-adjusted share is about 54.4%.

What are the over and under 2.5 prices?

Over 2.5 is 1.85 and under 2.5 is 1.95.

Do both teams score on this match?

Both teams to score is priced at 1.83. That is a market price, not a forecast that both sides will score.