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Luxembourg vs Bulgaria Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips

World · UEFA Nations LeagueTue, 6 Oct 2026

Luxembourg

4th in table · 3 pts

LWWLL

Tue, 6 Oct 202619:45

0 : 2

Full time

Bulgaria

3rd in table · 4 pts

LDLDL

Pre-match win probability

41%Luxembourg30.4%Draw28.6%Bulgaria

Our prediction

1X · Luxembourg

Luxembourg vs Bulgaria listed tip from the board.

Odds1.33
Confidence41%
ResultGraded
Pre-match model probabilityPick and odds as published before kick-off
  • Luxembourg 41%
  • Draw 30.4%
  • Bulgaria 28.6%

Season statistics

UEFA Nations League · 9 matches each · highlighted side is stronger

LuxembourgBulgaria
Goals scored (avg)
0.91.8
Goals conceded (avg)Lower is better
11.4
Wins
11
Played
44

Recent form

Last matches · newest first

Luxembourg4W 0D 5L in last 9
  • 3 OctEstonia1 – 0LuxembourgL
  • 29 SeptLuxembourg0 – 3IcelandL
  • 26 SeptBulgaria1 – 2LuxembourgW
  • 6 JunAlbania0 – 1LuxembourgW
  • 3 JunLuxembourg0 – 1ItalyL
  • 31 MarLuxembourg3 – 0MaltaW
  • 26 MarMalta0 – 2LuxembourgW
  • 17 NovNorthern Ireland1 – 0LuxembourgL
  • 14 NovLuxembourg0 – 2GermanyL
Bulgaria3W 2D 4L in last 9
  • 3 OctIceland3 – 0BulgariaL
  • 29 SeptBulgaria0 – 0EstoniaD
  • 26 SeptBulgaria1 – 2LuxembourgL
  • 5 JunMoldova2 – 2BulgariaD
  • 1 JunBulgaria0 – 1MontenegroL
  • 30 MarIndonesia0 – 1BulgariaW
  • 27 MarSolomon Islands2 – 10BulgariaW
  • 18 NovBulgaria2 – 1GeorgiaW
  • 15 NovTürkiye2 – 0BulgariaL
H2H
Head to headLuxembourg 1W · 3D · Bulgaria 2W · 2.2 goals a game
  • 26 SeptBulgaria1 – 2Luxembourg
  • 15 NovLuxembourg0 – 1Bulgaria
  • 12 OctBulgaria0 – 0Luxembourg
  • 20 NovLuxembourg0 – 0Bulgaria
  • 10 OctLuxembourg1 – 1Bulgaria
  • 6 SeptBulgaria4 – 3Luxembourg

Betting markets

Bookmaker prices with margin removed

Goal lineOverUnder
0.5 goals20.9% · 1.113.9% · 6
1.5 goals14.8% · 1.5710.3% · 2.25
2.5 goals8.9% · 2.6216.1% · 1.44
3.5 goals4.6% · 520.4% · 1.14

Both teams to score

Yes41.1%
No58.9%

Double chance

1X54.1%
X245.9%

Match result

Luxembourg2.3
Draw3.1
Bulgaria3.3

Both teams to score

Yes41.1% · 2.25
No58.9% · 1.57

1X

Chance54.1%
Odds1.33

X2

Chance45.9%
Odds1.57

Luxembourg

Chance41%
Odds2.3

Draw

Chance30.4%
Odds3.1

Bulgaria

Chance28.6%
Odds3.3

No half-time prices stored.

No corner prices stored.

Model comparison

Our pick: 1X at 1.33

LuxembourgBulgaria
Recent form52%48%
Attack33%67%
Defence56%44%
Goals model33%67%
Head-to-head42%58%
Overall59%41%

Trends

Trend · UEFA Nations League

Luxembourg scored 0.9 per game in the last 9.

Trend · UEFA Nations League

Luxembourg conceded 1 per game in the last 9.

Trend · UEFA Nations League

Failed to score in 5 of those 9.

Trend · UEFA Nations League

Kept a clean sheet in 3 of those 9.

Luxembourg vs Bulgaria: prediction & preview

World · UEFA Nations League · Tue, 6 Oct 2026

Luxembourg meet Bulgaria in the World, UEFA Nations League on 6 October 2026 at 19:45 (Africa/Lagos). The recorded score is 0–2.

On the 1X2 market the shortest price is Luxembourg at 2.3. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, that outcome carries about 41% of the implied chance, with the other two outcomes sharing the rest. A short price means the market rates that side more likely. It is not a certainty, and the margin means the three raw probabilities add up to more than 100% before they are scaled.

The 2.5-goal line is priced shorter on Under 2.5 (1.44, about 64.5% after the margin). Both teams to score is shorter on No at 1.57.

Season points-per-game rates were not stored on this fixture yet. The odds chart still shows how the 1X2, goals, and both-teams markets are priced.

Luxembourg vs Bulgaria FAQs

4 questions

What time is the Luxembourg vs Bulgaria match?

Kickoff is 19:45 on 6 October 2026, shown in Africa/Lagos.

What are the safest picks for Luxembourg vs Bulgaria?

Luxembourg is the safest-priced 1X2 pick at 2.3. The margin-adjusted share is about 41%.

What are the over and under 2.5 prices?

Over 2.5 is 2.62 and under 2.5 is 1.44.

Do both teams score on this match?

Both teams to score is priced at 2.25. That is a market price, not a forecast that both sides will score.