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Malaga vs Villarreal Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips

Spain · La LigaThu, 17 Sept 2026

Malaga

20th in table · 5 pts

DLDWL

Thu, 17 Sept 202620:30

1 : 3

Full time

Villarreal

8th in table · 12 pts

DLWWL

Pre-match win probability

25.4%Malaga25.1%Draw49.5%Villarreal

Our prediction

X2 · Malaga

Malaga vs Villarreal listed tip from the board.

Odds1.28
Confidence49.5%
ResultGraded
Pre-match model probabilityPick and odds as published before kick-off
  • Malaga 25.4%
  • Draw 25.1%
  • Villarreal 49.5%

Season statistics

La Liga · 9 matches each · highlighted side is stronger

MalagaVillarreal
Goals scored (avg)
11.9
Goals conceded (avg)Lower is better
1.71.2
Wins
03
Played
1111

Recent form

Last matches · newest first

Malaga1W 4D 4L in last 9
  • 31 OctReal Betis2 – 1MalagaL
  • 27 OctAlcazar0 – 3MalagaW
  • 23 OctAlaves1 – 1MalagaD
  • 18 OctMalaga2 – 5Real SociedadL
  • 9 OctMalaga1 – 1EspanyolD
  • 20 SeptGetafe1 – 0MalagaL
  • 13 SeptCelta Vigo1 – 1MalagaD
  • 6 SeptMalaga0 – 0LevanteD
  • 30 AugReal Madrid4 – 0MalagaL
Villarreal4W 1D 4L in last 9
  • 30 OctVillarreal0 – 1EspanyolL
  • 27 OctManacor0 – 5VillarrealW
  • 24 OctValencia1 – 2VillarrealW
  • 20 OctLiverpool4 – 3VillarrealL
  • 17 OctVillarreal0 – 0ElcheD
  • 13 OctVillarreal3 – 1NapoliW
  • 10 OctReal Madrid1 – 0VillarrealL
  • 20 SeptVillarreal3 – 1LevanteW
  • 14 SeptVillarreal1 – 2Real BetisL
H2H
Head to headMalaga 2W · 2D · Villarreal 5W · 1.8 goals a game
  • 1 AprMalaga1 – 0Villarreal
  • 5 NovVillarreal2 – 0Malaga
  • 12 FebVillarreal1 – 1Malaga
  • 10 SeptMalaga0 – 2Villarreal
  • 13 FebVillarreal1 – 0Malaga
  • 23 SeptMalaga0 – 1Villarreal
  • 17 MayVillarreal2 – 1Malaga
  • 10 JanMalaga1 – 1Villarreal
  • 21 AprMalaga2 – 0Villarreal

Betting markets

Bookmaker prices with margin removed

Goal lineOverUnder
0.5 goals23.1% · 1.031.6% · 15
1.5 goals19.8% · 1.25.3% · 4.5
2.5 goals14.7% · 1.6210.4% · 2.3
3.5 goals9.5% · 2.515.6% · 1.53

Both teams to score

Yes58.9%
No41.1%

Double chance

1X40.1%
X259.9%

Match result

Malaga3.7
Draw3.75
Villarreal1.9

Both teams to score

Yes58.9% · 1.57
No41.1% · 2.25

1X

Chance40.1%
Odds1.91

X2

Chance59.9%
Odds1.28

Malaga

Chance25.4%
Odds3.7

Draw

Chance25.1%
Odds3.75

Villarreal

Chance49.5%
Odds1.9

No half-time prices stored.

No corner prices stored.

Model comparison

Our pick: X2 at 1.28

MalagaVillarreal
Recent form35%65%
Attack34%66%
Defence42%58%
Goals model34%66%
Head-to-head33%67%
Overall34%66%

Trends

Trend · La Liga

Malaga scored 1 per game in the last 9.

Trend · La Liga

Malaga conceded 1.7 per game in the last 9.

Trend · La Liga

Failed to score in 3 of those 9.

Trend · La Liga

Kept a clean sheet in 2 of those 9.

Malaga vs Villarreal: prediction & preview

Spain · La Liga · Thu, 17 Sept 2026

Malaga meet Villarreal in the Spain, La Liga on 17 September 2026 at 20:30 (Africa/Lagos). The recorded score is 1–3.

On the 1X2 market the shortest price is Villarreal at 1.9. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, that outcome carries about 49.5% of the implied chance, with the other two outcomes sharing the rest. A short price means the market rates that side more likely. It is not a certainty, and the margin means the three raw probabilities add up to more than 100% before they are scaled.

The 2.5-goal line is priced shorter on Over 2.5 (1.62, about 58.7% after the margin). Both teams to score is shorter on Yes at 1.57.

Season points-per-game rates were not stored on this fixture yet. The odds chart still shows how the 1X2, goals, and both-teams markets are priced.

Malaga vs Villarreal FAQs

4 questions

What time is the Malaga vs Villarreal match?

Kickoff is 20:30 on 17 September 2026, shown in Africa/Lagos.

What are the safest picks for Malaga vs Villarreal?

Villarreal is the safest-priced 1X2 pick at 1.9. The margin-adjusted share is about 49.5%.

What are the over and under 2.5 prices?

Over 2.5 is 1.62 and under 2.5 is 2.3.

Do both teams score on this match?

Both teams to score is priced at 1.57. That is a market price, not a forecast that both sides will score.