Get Premium

Qarabag vs Neftchi Baku Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips

Azerbaijan · Premyer LiqaSat, 17 Oct 2026

Qarabag

2nd in table · 19 pts

DWWDD

Sat, 17 Oct 202616:00

3 : 3

Full time

Neftchi Baku

3rd in table · 18 pts

WWDDW

Pre-match win probability

50.2%Qarabag26.6%Draw23.2%Neftchi Baku

Our prediction

1X · Qarabag

Qarabag vs Neftchi Baku listed tip from the board.

Odds1.18
Confidence50.2%
ResultGraded
Pre-match model probabilityPick and odds as published before kick-off
  • Qarabag 50.2%
  • Draw 26.6%
  • Neftchi Baku 23.2%

Season statistics

Premyer Liqa · 9 matches each · highlighted side is stronger

QarabagNeftchi Baku
Goals scored (avg)
1.12.4
Goals conceded (avg)Lower is better
0.80.9
Wins
55
Played
99

Recent form

Last matches · newest first

Qarabag5W 3D 1L in last 9
  • 31 OctQabala0 – 0QarabagD
  • 25 OctSabah FA0 – 0QarabagD
  • 11 OctImisli FK0 – 2QarabagW
  • 18 SeptQarabag1 – 0Safa BakuW
  • 13 SeptZira1 – 1QarabagD
  • 6 SeptQarabag3 – 2ArazW
  • 31 AugSumqayıt0 – 1QarabagW
  • 27 AugQarabag1 – 4TwenteL
  • 20 AugTwente0 – 1QarabagW
Neftchi Baku6W 2D 1L in last 9
  • 1 NovŞamaxı FK2 – 3Neftchi BakuW
  • 24 OctNeftchi Baku1 – 1TuranD
  • 9 OctNeftchi Baku0 – 0Sabah FAD
  • 18 SeptQabala0 – 3Neftchi BakuW
  • 11 SeptImisli FK2 – 3Neftchi BakuW
  • 5 SeptNeftchi Baku4 – 1Safa BakuW
  • 30 AugZira1 – 0Neftchi BakuL
  • 23 AugNeftchi Baku5 – 0ArazW
  • 16 AugSumqayıt1 – 3Neftchi BakuW
H2H
Head to headQarabag 8W · 0D · Neftchi Baku 1W · 3.6 goals a game
  • 30 AprNeftchi Baku2 – 1Qarabag
  • 26 AprNeftchi Baku1 – 5Qarabag
  • 9 NovQarabag2 – 0Neftchi Baku
  • 19 AprQarabag3 – 0Neftchi Baku
  • 16 FebNeftchi Baku0 – 1Qarabag
  • 1 DecNeftchi Baku0 – 3Qarabag
  • 20 SeptQarabag4 – 0Neftchi Baku
  • 4 MayQarabag5 – 0Neftchi Baku
  • 24 AprQarabag4 – 1Neftchi Baku

Betting markets

Bookmaker prices with margin removed

Goal lineOverUnder
0.5 goals22.5% · 1.042.6% · 9
1.5 goals19.5% · 1.25.4% · 4.33
2.5 goals13.8% · 1.711.1% · 2.1
3.5 goals8.9% · 2.6216.2% · 1.44

Both teams to score

Yes57.6%
No42.4%

Double chance

1X60.8%
X239.2%

Match result

Qarabag1.8
Draw3.4
Neftchi Baku3.9

Both teams to score

Yes57.6% · 1.62
No42.4% · 2.2

1X

Chance60.8%
Odds1.18

X2

Chance39.2%
Odds1.83

Qarabag

Chance50.2%
Odds1.8

Draw

Chance26.6%
Odds3.4

Neftchi Baku

Chance23.2%
Odds3.9

No half-time prices stored.

No corner prices stored.

Model comparison

Our pick: 1X at 1.18

QarabagNeftchi Baku
Recent form47%53%
Attack31%69%
Defence51%49%
Goals model31%69%
Head-to-head89%11%
Overall68%32%

Trends

Trend · Premyer Liqa

Qarabag scored 1.1 per game in the last 9.

Trend · Premyer Liqa

Qarabag conceded 0.8 per game in the last 9.

Trend · Premyer Liqa

Failed to score in 2 of those 9.

Trend · Premyer Liqa

Kept a clean sheet in 6 of those 9.

Qarabag vs Neftchi Baku: prediction & preview

Azerbaijan · Premyer Liqa · Sat, 17 Oct 2026

Qarabag meet Neftchi Baku in the Azerbaijan, Premyer Liqa on 17 October 2026 at 16:00 (Africa/Lagos). The recorded score is 3–3.

On the 1X2 market the shortest price is Qarabag at 1.8. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, that outcome carries about 50.2% of the implied chance, with the other two outcomes sharing the rest. A short price means the market rates that side more likely. It is not a certainty, and the margin means the three raw probabilities add up to more than 100% before they are scaled.

The 2.5-goal line is priced shorter on Over 2.5 (1.7, about 55.3% after the margin). Both teams to score is shorter on Yes at 1.62.

Season points-per-game rates were not stored on this fixture yet. The odds chart still shows how the 1X2, goals, and both-teams markets are priced.

Qarabag vs Neftchi Baku FAQs

4 questions

What time is the Qarabag vs Neftchi Baku match?

Kickoff is 16:00 on 17 October 2026, shown in Africa/Lagos.

What are the safest picks for Qarabag vs Neftchi Baku?

Qarabag is the safest-priced 1X2 pick at 1.8. The margin-adjusted share is about 50.2%.

What are the over and under 2.5 prices?

Over 2.5 is 1.7 and under 2.5 is 2.1.

Do both teams score on this match?

Both teams to score is priced at 1.62. That is a market price, not a forecast that both sides will score.