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Tapatío vs Leones Negros UDG Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips

Mexico · Liga de Expansión MXMon, 7 Sept 2026

Tapatío

LWLLD

Mon, 7 Sept 202600:00

1 : 3

Full time

Leones Negros UDG

WWDLW

Pre-match win probability

43.9%Tapatío27%Draw29.1%Leones Negros UDG

Our prediction

1X · Tapatío

Tapatío vs Leones Negros UDG listed tip from the board.

Odds1.33
Confidence43.9%
ResultGraded
Pre-match model probabilityPick and odds as published before kick-off
  • Tapatío 43.9%
  • Draw 27%
  • Leones Negros UDG 29.1%

Season statistics

Liga de Expansión MX · 9 matches each · highlighted side is stronger

TapatíoLeones Negros UDG
Goals scored (avg)
1.61.9
Goals conceded (avg)Lower is better
21.4

Recent form

Last matches · newest first

Tapatío2W 2D 5L in last 9
  • 1 NovPiratas1 – 1TapatíoD
  • 26 OctTapatío1 – 2MonarcasL
  • 18 OctDurango5 – 0TapatíoL
  • 14 OctTapatío4 – 1TepatitlánW
  • 10 OctTapatío2 – 4CA La PazL
  • 4 OctCancún1 – 0TapatíoL
  • 21 SeptTapatío4 – 0TlaxcalaW
  • 13 SeptDorados3 – 1TapatíoL
  • 28 AugAlebrijes de Oaxaca1 – 1TapatíoD
Leones Negros UDG4W 3D 2L in last 9
  • 25 OctMineros de Zacatecas0 – 2Leones Negros UDGW
  • 18 OctLeones Negros UDG1 – 2Alebrijes de OaxacaL
  • 11 OctVenados FC1 – 1Leones Negros UDGD
  • 4 OctLeones Negros UDG6 – 3DoradosW
  • 26 SeptCruz Azul Hidalgo1 – 2Leones Negros UDGW
  • 20 SeptMonarcas2 – 0Leones Negros UDGL
  • 13 SeptLeones Negros UDG2 – 2CA La PazD
  • 30 AugLeones Negros UDG1 – 1PiratasD
  • 23 AugDurango1 – 2Leones Negros UDGW
H2H
Head to headTapatío 3W · 4D · Leones Negros UDG 2W · 2.9 goals a game
  • 31 JanTapatío2 – 0Leones Negros UDG
  • 23 AugLeones Negros UDG1 – 1Tapatío
  • 8 JunLeones Negros UDG1 – 2Tapatío
  • 1 JunTapatío1 – 0Leones Negros UDG
  • 12 JanTapatío2 – 3Leones Negros UDG
  • 28 DecLeones Negros UDG3 – 0Tapatío
  • 18 NovTapatío2 – 2Leones Negros UDG
  • 15 NovLeones Negros UDG2 – 2Tapatío
  • 27 JulLeones Negros UDG1 – 1Tapatío

Betting markets

Bookmaker prices with margin removed

Goal lineOverUnder
2.5 goals52.6% · 1.847.4% · 2

Double chance

1X55.7%
X244.3%

Match result

Tapatío2.15
Draw3.5
Leones Negros UDG3.25

No BTTS prices stored.

1X

Chance55.7%
Odds1.33

X2

Chance44.3%
Odds1.67

Tapatío

Chance43.9%
Odds2.15

Draw

Chance27%
Odds3.5

Leones Negros UDG

Chance29.1%
Odds3.25

No half-time prices stored.

No corner prices stored.

Model comparison

Our pick: 1X at 1.33

TapatíoLeones Negros UDG
Recent form35%65%
Attack46%54%
Defence38%62%
Goals model46%54%
Head-to-head56%44%
Overall60%40%

Trends

Trend · Liga de Expansión MX

Tapatío scored 1.6 per game in the last 9.

Trend · Liga de Expansión MX

Tapatío conceded 2 per game in the last 9.

Trend · Liga de Expansión MX

Failed to score in 2 of those 9.

Trend · Liga de Expansión MX

Kept a clean sheet in 1 of those 9.

Tapatío vs Leones Negros UDG: prediction & preview

Mexico · Liga de Expansión MX · Mon, 7 Sept 2026

Tapatío meet Leones Negros UDG in the Mexico, Liga de Expansión MX on 7 September 2026 at 00:00 (Africa/Lagos). The recorded score is 1–3.

On the 1X2 market the shortest price is Tapatío at 2.15. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, that outcome carries about 43.9% of the implied chance, with the other two outcomes sharing the rest. A short price means the market rates that side more likely. It is not a certainty, and the margin means the three raw probabilities add up to more than 100% before they are scaled.

The 2.5-goal line is priced shorter on Over 2.5 (1.8, about 52.6% after the margin).

Season points-per-game rates were not stored on this fixture yet. The odds chart still shows how the 1X2, goals, and both-teams markets are priced.

Tapatío vs Leones Negros UDG FAQs

4 questions

What time is the Tapatío vs Leones Negros UDG match?

Kickoff is 00:00 on 7 September 2026, shown in Africa/Lagos.

What are the safest picks for Tapatío vs Leones Negros UDG?

Tapatío is the safest-priced 1X2 pick at 2.15. The margin-adjusted share is about 43.9%.

What are the over and under 2.5 prices?

Over 2.5 is 1.8 and under 2.5 is 2.

Do both teams score on this match?

A both-teams-to-score price is not stored for this match.