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Tigres UANL vs Toluca Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips

Mexico · Liga MXSat, 10 Oct 2026

Tigres UANL

15th in table · 15 pts

WDLDL

Sat, 10 Oct 202604:00

3 : 2

Full time

Toluca

5th in table · 24 pts

LDDDD

Pre-match win probability

31.9%Tigres UANL26.6%Draw41.6%Toluca

Our prediction

X2 · Tigres UANL

Tigres UANL vs Toluca listed tip from the board.

Odds1.4
Confidence41.6%
ResultGraded
Pre-match model probabilityPick and odds as published before kick-off
  • Tigres UANL 31.9%
  • Draw 26.6%
  • Toluca 41.6%

Season statistics

Liga MX · 9 matches each · highlighted side is stronger

Tigres UANLToluca
Goals scored (avg)
0.42
Goals conceded (avg)Lower is better
1.11.8
Wins
36
Played
1515

Recent form

Last matches · newest first

Tigres UANL1W 5D 3L in last 9
  • 1 NovCF Pachuca3 – 0Tigres UANLL
  • 25 OctU.N.A.M. - Pumas1 – 1Tigres UANLD
  • 21 OctTigres UANL0 – 2LeonL
  • 18 OctGuadalajara Chivas1 – 1Tigres UANLD
  • 27 SeptTigres UANL1 – 0PueblaW
  • 19 SeptFC Juarez2 – 0Tigres UANLL
  • 13 SeptMonterrey0 – 0Tigres UANLD
  • 6 SeptTigres UANL1 – 1NecaxaD
  • 30 AugSantos Laguna0 – 0Tigres UANLD
Toluca2W 5D 2L in last 9
  • 1 NovClub America2 – 2TolucaD
  • 25 OctLeon1 – 1TolucaD
  • 22 OctToluca2 – 2Club TijuanaD
  • 18 OctToluca1 – 1Atletico San LuisD
  • 4 OctMonterrey2 – 1TolucaL
  • 26 SeptCruz Azul3 – 3TolucaD
  • 21 SeptToluca2 – 3Santos LagunaL
  • 16 SeptPuebla0 – 1TolucaW
  • 13 SeptToluca5 – 2AtlasW
H2H
Head to headTigres UANL 3W · 3D · Toluca 3W · 2.4 goals a game
  • 31 MayToluca1 – 1Tigres UANL
  • 18 JanTigres UANL0 – 0Toluca
  • 15 DecToluca2 – 1Tigres UANL
  • 12 DecTigres UANL1 – 0Toluca
  • 27 JulToluca3 – 4Tigres UANL
  • 18 MayToluca3 – 0Tigres UANL
  • 15 MayTigres UANL1 – 1Toluca
  • 2 FebToluca1 – 0Tigres UANL
  • 7 NovTigres UANL2 – 1Toluca

Betting markets

Bookmaker prices with margin removed

Goal lineOverUnder
0.5 goals22.7% · 1.041.8% · 13
1.5 goals19.6% · 1.25.4% · 4.33
2.5 goals13.9% · 1.711.2% · 2.1
3.5 goals9% · 2.6216.4% · 1.44

Both teams to score

Yes57.6%
No42.4%

Double chance

1X47.1%
X252.9%

Match result

Tigres UANL3
Draw3.6
Toluca2.3

Both teams to score

Yes57.6% · 1.62
No42.4% · 2.2

1X

Chance47.1%
Odds1.57

X2

Chance52.9%
Odds1.4

Tigres UANL

Chance31.9%
Odds3

Draw

Chance26.6%
Odds3.6

Toluca

Chance41.6%
Odds2.3

No half-time prices stored.

No corner prices stored.

Model comparison

Our pick: X2 at 1.4

Tigres UANLToluca
Recent form42%58%
Attack17%83%
Defence61%39%
Goals model17%83%
Head-to-head50%50%
Overall43%57%

Trends

Trend · Liga MX

Tigres UANL scored 0.4 per game in the last 9.

Trend · Liga MX

Tigres UANL conceded 1.1 per game in the last 9.

Trend · Liga MX

Failed to score in 5 of those 9.

Trend · Liga MX

Kept a clean sheet in 3 of those 9.

Tigres UANL vs Toluca: prediction & preview

Mexico · Liga MX · Sat, 10 Oct 2026

Tigres UANL meet Toluca in the Mexico, Liga MX on 10 October 2026 at 04:00 (Africa/Lagos). The recorded score is 3–2.

On the 1X2 market the shortest price is Toluca at 2.3. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, that outcome carries about 41.6% of the implied chance, with the other two outcomes sharing the rest. A short price means the market rates that side more likely. It is not a certainty, and the margin means the three raw probabilities add up to more than 100% before they are scaled.

The 2.5-goal line is priced shorter on Over 2.5 (1.7, about 55.3% after the margin). Both teams to score is shorter on Yes at 1.62.

Season points-per-game rates were not stored on this fixture yet. The odds chart still shows how the 1X2, goals, and both-teams markets are priced.

Tigres UANL vs Toluca FAQs

4 questions

What time is the Tigres UANL vs Toluca match?

Kickoff is 04:00 on 10 October 2026, shown in Africa/Lagos.

What are the safest picks for Tigres UANL vs Toluca?

Toluca is the safest-priced 1X2 pick at 2.3. The margin-adjusted share is about 41.6%.

What are the over and under 2.5 prices?

Over 2.5 is 1.7 and under 2.5 is 2.1.

Do both teams score on this match?

Both teams to score is priced at 1.62. That is a market price, not a forecast that both sides will score.

Tigres UANL vs Toluca prediction, H2H and stats