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Toluca vs Necaxa Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips

Mexico · Liga MXMon, 3 Aug 2026

Toluca

LDDDD

Mon, 3 Aug 202602:10

3 : 1

Full time

Necaxa

Pre-match win probability

62.7%Toluca20.9%Draw16.4%Necaxa

Our prediction

Toluca

Toluca is the shortest 1X2 price in the stored market.

Odds1.5
Confidence62.7%
ResultGraded
Pre-match model probabilityPick and odds as published before kick-off
  • Toluca 62.7%
  • Draw 20.9%
  • Necaxa 16.4%

Season statistics

Liga MX · 10 matches each · highlighted side is stronger

TolucaNecaxa
Goals scored (avg)
2–
Goals conceded (avg)Lower is better
1.9–

Recent form

Last matches · newest first

Toluca2W 5D 3L in last 10
  • 1 NovClub America2 – 2TolucaD
  • 25 OctLeon1 – 1TolucaD
  • 22 OctToluca2 – 2Club TijuanaD
  • 18 OctToluca1 – 1Atletico San LuisD
  • 10 OctTigres UANL3 – 2TolucaL
  • 4 OctMonterrey2 – 1TolucaL
  • 26 SeptCruz Azul3 – 3TolucaD
  • 21 SeptToluca2 – 3Santos LagunaL
  • 16 SeptPuebla0 – 1TolucaW
  • 13 SeptToluca5 – 2AtlasW
Necaxa0W 0D 0L in last 0
    H2H
    Head to headToluca 7W · 2D · Necaxa 0W · 3.6 goals a game
    • 22 FebNecaxa0 – 3Toluca
    • 13 JulToluca3 – 1Necaxa
    • 9 MarToluca5 – 2Necaxa
    • 28 OctNecaxa1 – 3Toluca
    • 11 FebNecaxa3 – 3Toluca
    • 2 JulToluca0 – 0Necaxa
    • 30 AprToluca3 – 0Necaxa
    • 27 DecToluca1 – 0Necaxa
    • 2 JulNecaxa1 – 3Toluca

    Betting markets

    Bookmaker prices with margin removed

    Goal lineOverUnder
    0.5 goals23.2% · 1.021.2% · 19
    1.5 goals20.8% · 1.144.3% · 5.5
    2.5 goals16% · 1.489.1% · 2.6
    3.5 goals11.3% · 2.114.2% · 1.67

    Both teams to score

    Yes57.6%
    No42.4%

    Double chance

    1X70.1%
    X229.9%

    Match result

    Toluca1.5
    Draw4.5
    Necaxa5.75

    Both teams to score

    Yes57.6% · 1.62
    No42.4% · 2.2

    1X

    Chance70.1%
    Odds1.12

    X2

    Chance29.9%
    Odds2.62

    Toluca

    Chance62.7%
    Odds1.5

    Draw

    Chance20.9%
    Odds4.5

    Necaxa

    Chance16.4%
    Odds5.75

    No half-time prices stored.

    No corner prices stored.

    Model comparison

    Our pick: Toluca at 1.5

    TolucaNecaxa
    Recent form92%8%
    Attack67%33%
    Defence52%48%
    Goals model67%33%
    Head-to-head89%11%
    Overall79%21%

    Trends

    Trend · Liga MX

    Toluca scored 2 per game in the last 10.

    Trend · Liga MX

    Toluca conceded 1.9 per game in the last 10.

    Trend · Liga MX

    Kept a clean sheet in 1 of those 10.

    Trend · Liga MX

    Over 2.5 goals in 7 of those 10.

    Toluca vs Necaxa: prediction & preview

    Mexico · Liga MX · Mon, 3 Aug 2026

    Toluca meet Necaxa in the Mexico, Liga MX on 3 August 2026 at 02:10 (Africa/Lagos). The recorded score is 3–1.

    On the 1X2 market the shortest price is Toluca at 1.5. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, that outcome carries about 62.7% of the implied chance, with the other two outcomes sharing the rest. A short price means the market rates that side more likely. It is not a certainty, and the margin means the three raw probabilities add up to more than 100% before they are scaled.

    The 2.5-goal line is priced shorter on Over 2.5 (1.48, about 63.7% after the margin). Both teams to score is shorter on Yes at 1.62.

    Season points-per-game rates were not stored on this fixture yet. The odds chart still shows how the 1X2, goals, and both-teams markets are priced.

    Toluca vs Necaxa FAQs

    4 questions

    What time is the Toluca vs Necaxa match?

    Kickoff is 02:10 on 3 August 2026, shown in Africa/Lagos.

    What are the safest picks for Toluca vs Necaxa?

    Toluca is the safest-priced 1X2 pick at 1.5. The margin-adjusted share is about 62.7%.

    What are the over and under 2.5 prices?

    Over 2.5 is 1.48 and under 2.5 is 2.6.

    Do both teams score on this match?

    Both teams to score is priced at 1.62. That is a market price, not a forecast that both sides will score.