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Ajax vs Willem II Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips

Netherlands · EredivisieTue, 15 Sept 2026

Ajax

2nd in table · 24 pts

LWWWW

Tue, 15 Sept 202619:00

5 : 1

Full time

Willem II

18th in table · 2 pts

LLLWL

Pre-match win probability

85.1%Ajax10.4%Draw4.5%Willem II

Our prediction

1 · Ajax

Ajax vs Willem II listed tip from the board.

Odds1.1
Confidence85.1%
ResultGraded
Pre-match model probabilityPick and odds as published before kick-off
  • Ajax 85.1%
  • Draw 10.4%
  • Willem II 4.5%

Season statistics

Eredivisie · 9 matches each · highlighted side is stronger

AjaxWillem II
Goals scored (avg)
2.21.2
Goals conceded (avg)Lower is better
1.33.2
Wins
70
Played
1111

Recent form

Last matches · newest first

Ajax5W 2D 2L in last 9
  • 31 OctAjax1 – 0AZ AlkmaarW
  • 25 OctSparta Rotterdam1 – 2AjaxW
  • 22 OctAjax2 – 0AtalantaW
  • 18 OctGroningen2 – 5AjaxW
  • 15 OctHNK Hajduk Split2 – 1AjaxL
  • 10 OctAjax1 – 1NEC NijmegenD
  • 19 SeptAjax2 – 2ExcelsiorD
  • 12 SeptFortuna Sittard1 – 5AjaxW
  • 5 SeptAjax1 – 3PSV EindhovenL
Willem II1W 2D 6L in last 9
  • 31 OctPSV Eindhoven7 – 0Willem IIL
  • 27 OctHelmond Sport3 – 4Willem IIW
  • 24 OctWillem II1 – 6CambuurL
  • 17 OctSparta Rotterdam3 – 2Willem IIL
  • 11 OctUtrecht3 – 1Willem IIL
  • 19 SeptWillem II0 – 1Fortuna SittardL
  • 11 SeptAZ Alkmaar1 – 1Willem IID
  • 5 SeptWillem II0 – 3ExcelsiorL
  • 30 AugWillem II2 – 2HeerenveenD
H2H
Head to headAjax 6W · 1D · Willem II 1W · 2.8 goals a game
  • 13 AprWillem II1 – 2Ajax
  • 27 OctAjax1 – 0Willem II
  • 19 FebWillem II0 – 1Ajax
  • 2 DecAjax5 – 0Willem II
  • 28 JanAjax3 – 1Willem II
  • 23 DecWillem II1 – 1Ajax
  • 6 DecAjax0 – 2Willem II
  • 5 MayWillem II0 – 4Ajax

Betting markets

Bookmaker prices with margin removed

Goal lineOverUnder
0.5 goals23.6% · 1.010.8% · 29
1.5 goals22.7% · 1.052.2% · 11
2.5 goals19.5% · 1.225.7% · 4.2
3.5 goals15.6% · 1.5310% · 2.38

Both teams to score

Yes52%
No48%

Double chance

1X86.4%
X213.6%

Match result

Ajax1.1
Draw9
Willem II21

Both teams to score

Yes52% · 1.8
No48% · 1.95

1X

Chance86.4%
Odds1.02

X2

Chance13.6%
Odds6.5

Ajax

Chance85.1%
Odds1.1

Draw

Chance10.4%
Odds9

Willem II

Chance4.5%
Odds21

No half-time prices stored.

No corner prices stored.

Model comparison

Our pick: 1 at 1.1

AjaxWillem II
Recent form77%23%
Attack65%35%
Defence94%6%
Goals model65%35%
Head-to-head81%19%
Overall95%5%

Trends

Trend · Eredivisie

Ajax scored 2.2 per game in the last 9.

Trend · Eredivisie

Ajax conceded 1.3 per game in the last 9.

Trend · Eredivisie

Kept a clean sheet in 2 of those 9.

Trend · Eredivisie

Over 2.5 goals in 6 of those 9.

Ajax vs Willem II: prediction & preview

Netherlands · Eredivisie · Tue, 15 Sept 2026

Ajax meet Willem II in the Netherlands, Eredivisie on 15 September 2026 at 19:00 (Africa/Lagos). The recorded score is 5–1.

On the 1X2 market the shortest price is Ajax at 1.1. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, that outcome carries about 85.1% of the implied chance, with the other two outcomes sharing the rest. A short price means the market rates that side more likely. It is not a certainty, and the margin means the three raw probabilities add up to more than 100% before they are scaled.

The 2.5-goal line is priced shorter on Over 2.5 (1.22, about 77.5% after the margin). Both teams to score is shorter on Yes at 1.8.

Season points-per-game rates were not stored on this fixture yet. The odds chart still shows how the 1X2, goals, and both-teams markets are priced.

Ajax vs Willem II FAQs

4 questions

What time is the Ajax vs Willem II match?

Kickoff is 19:00 on 15 September 2026, shown in Africa/Lagos.

What are the safest picks for Ajax vs Willem II?

Ajax is the safest-priced 1X2 pick at 1.1. The margin-adjusted share is about 85.1%.

What are the over and under 2.5 prices?

Over 2.5 is 1.22 and under 2.5 is 4.2.

Do both teams score on this match?

Both teams to score is priced at 1.8. That is a market price, not a forecast that both sides will score.