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Alaves vs Atletico Madrid Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips

Spain · La LigaSat, 10 Oct 2026

Alaves

10th in table · 12 pts

LDLDL

Sat, 10 Oct 202615:15

1 : 2

Full time

Atletico Madrid

2nd in table · 28 pts

WWDWW

Pre-match win probability

21.9%Alaves25.6%Draw52.6%Atletico Madrid

Our prediction

X2 · Alaves

Alaves vs Atletico Madrid listed tip from the board.

Odds1.22
Confidence52.6%
ResultGraded
Pre-match model probabilityPick and odds as published before kick-off
  • Alaves 21.9%
  • Draw 25.6%
  • Atletico Madrid 52.6%

Season statistics

La Liga · 9 matches each · highlighted side is stronger

AlavesAtletico Madrid
Goals scored (avg)
1.21.9
Goals conceded (avg)Lower is better
1.70.4
Wins
39
Played
1111

Recent form

Last matches · newest first

Alaves2W 3D 4L in last 9
  • 31 OctBarcelona6 – 1AlavesL
  • 23 OctAlaves1 – 1MalagaD
  • 18 OctCelta Vigo2 – 1AlavesL
  • 19 SeptAthletic Club0 – 0AlavesD
  • 15 SeptAlaves0 – 1ValenciaL
  • 12 SeptRacing Santander2 – 1AlavesL
  • 6 SeptAlaves5 – 2OsasunaW
  • 28 AugAlaves1 – 0VillarrealW
  • 20 AugRayo Vallecano1 – 1AlavesD
Atletico Madrid7W 1D 1L in last 9
  • 31 OctLevante0 – 2Atletico MadridW
  • 24 OctAtletico Madrid1 – 0Deportivo La CorunaW
  • 20 OctVfB Stuttgart1 – 1Atletico MadridD
  • 17 OctEspanyol0 – 1Atletico MadridW
  • 13 OctAtletico Madrid2 – 0Manchester UnitedW
  • 20 SeptAtletico Madrid2 – 1Real MadridW
  • 16 SeptAtletico Madrid4 – 0OsasunaW
  • 13 SeptReal Sociedad0 – 3Atletico MadridW
  • 9 SeptLiverpool2 – 1Atletico MadridL
H2H
Head to headAlaves 2W · 2D · Atletico Madrid 5W · 2 goals a game
  • 18 JanAtletico Madrid1 – 0Alaves
  • 30 AugAlaves1 – 1Atletico Madrid
  • 3 MayAlaves0 – 0Atletico Madrid
  • 23 NovAtletico Madrid2 – 1Alaves
  • 21 AprAlaves2 – 0Atletico Madrid
  • 29 OctAtletico Madrid2 – 1Alaves
  • 2 AprAtletico Madrid4 – 1Alaves
  • 25 SeptAlaves1 – 0Atletico Madrid
  • 21 MarAtletico Madrid1 – 0Alaves

Betting markets

Bookmaker prices with margin removed

Goal lineOverUnder
0.5 goals22.8% · 1.052.2% · 11
1.5 goals18.7% · 1.286.4% · 3.75
2.5 goals12.5% · 1.9112.5% · 1.91
3.5 goals7% · 3.418% · 1.33

Both teams to score

Yes52%
No48%

Double chance

1X38.5%
X261.5%

Match result

Alaves4.33
Draw3.7
Atletico Madrid1.8

Both teams to score

Yes52% · 1.8
No48% · 1.95

1X

Chance38.5%
Odds1.95

X2

Chance61.5%
Odds1.22

Alaves

Chance21.9%
Odds4.33

Draw

Chance25.6%
Odds3.7

Atletico Madrid

Chance52.6%
Odds1.8

No half-time prices stored.

No corner prices stored.

Model comparison

Our pick: X2 at 1.22

AlavesAtletico Madrid
Recent form29%71%
Attack39%61%
Defence33%67%
Goals model39%61%
Head-to-head33%67%
Overall29%71%

Trends

Trend · La Liga

Alaves scored 1.2 per game in the last 9.

Trend · La Liga

Alaves conceded 1.7 per game in the last 9.

Trend · La Liga

Failed to score in 2 of those 9.

Trend · La Liga

Kept a clean sheet in 2 of those 9.

Alaves vs Atletico Madrid: prediction & preview

Spain · La Liga · Sat, 10 Oct 2026

Alaves meet Atletico Madrid in the Spain, La Liga on 10 October 2026 at 15:15 (Africa/Lagos). The recorded score is 1–2.

On the 1X2 market the shortest price is Atletico Madrid at 1.8. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, that outcome carries about 52.6% of the implied chance, with the other two outcomes sharing the rest. A short price means the market rates that side more likely. It is not a certainty, and the margin means the three raw probabilities add up to more than 100% before they are scaled.

The 2.5-goal line is priced shorter on Over 2.5 (1.91, about 50% after the margin). Both teams to score is shorter on Yes at 1.8.

Season points-per-game rates were not stored on this fixture yet. The odds chart still shows how the 1X2, goals, and both-teams markets are priced.

Alaves vs Atletico Madrid FAQs

4 questions

What time is the Alaves vs Atletico Madrid match?

Kickoff is 15:15 on 10 October 2026, shown in Africa/Lagos.

What are the safest picks for Alaves vs Atletico Madrid?

Atletico Madrid is the safest-priced 1X2 pick at 1.8. The margin-adjusted share is about 52.6%.

What are the over and under 2.5 prices?

Over 2.5 is 1.91 and under 2.5 is 1.91.

Do both teams score on this match?

Both teams to score is priced at 1.8. That is a market price, not a forecast that both sides will score.