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Progreso vs Racing Montevideo Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips

Uruguay · Primera DivisiónSat, 26 Sept 2026

Progreso

15th in table · 35 pts

LDWWL

Sat, 26 Sept 202615:00

2 : 1

Full time

Racing Montevideo

4th in table · 60 pts

LLWDW

Pre-match win probability

22.8%Progreso28.7%Draw48.6%Racing Montevideo

Our prediction

X2 · Progreso

Progreso vs Racing Montevideo listed tip from the board.

Odds1.22
Confidence48.6%
ResultGraded
Pre-match model probabilityPick and odds as published before kick-off
  • Progreso 22.8%
  • Draw 28.7%
  • Racing Montevideo 48.6%

Season statistics

Primera División · 9 matches each · highlighted side is stronger

ProgresoRacing Montevideo
Goals scored (avg)
1.11.6
Goals conceded (avg)Lower is better
1.21.8
Wins
1016
Played
3535

Recent form

Last matches · newest first

Progreso4W 1D 4L in last 9
  • 1 NovProgreso0 – 2Defensor SportingL
  • 25 OctWanderers0 – 1ProgresoW
  • 17 OctProgreso2 – 0JuventudW
  • 10 OctPenarol1 – 1ProgresoD
  • 3 OctLiverpool Montevideo3 – 2ProgresoL
  • 19 SeptBoston River1 – 2ProgresoW
  • 16 SeptProgreso0 – 1Club NacionalL
  • 13 SeptProgreso1 – 3CerroL
  • 7 SeptAlbion FC0 – 1ProgresoW
Racing Montevideo3W 2D 4L in last 9
  • 31 OctRacing Montevideo3 – 1Cerro LargoW
  • 24 OctDefensor Sporting3 – 3Racing MontevideoD
  • 17 OctRacing Montevideo3 – 0WanderersW
  • 11 OctJuventud2 – 0Racing MontevideoL
  • 4 OctRacing Montevideo0 – 1PenarolL
  • 21 SeptLiverpool Montevideo0 – 0Racing MontevideoD
  • 17 SeptJuventud3 – 0Racing MontevideoL
  • 12 SeptRacing Montevideo3 – 2Boston RiverW
  • 9 SeptRacing Montevideo2 – 4Central EspanolL
H2H
Head to headProgreso 2W · 2D · Racing Montevideo 5W · 2.7 goals a game
  • 26 MarRacing Montevideo1 – 1Progreso
  • 29 SeptRacing Montevideo0 – 0Progreso
  • 22 JunRacing Montevideo3 – 0Progreso
  • 30 MarProgreso0 – 1Racing Montevideo
  • 21 SeptRacing Montevideo1 – 0Progreso
  • 7 JulProgreso3 – 2Racing Montevideo
  • 10 MarProgreso4 – 3Racing Montevideo
  • 14 AugRacing Montevideo2 – 1Progreso
  • 22 MayProgreso0 – 2Racing Montevideo

Betting markets

Bookmaker prices with margin removed

Goal lineOverUnder
0.5 goals21.8% · 1.082.9% · 8
1.5 goals16.8% · 1.48.5% · 2.75
2.5 goals10.4% · 2.2514.5% · 1.62
3.5 goals5.4% · 4.3319.6% · 1.2

Both teams to score

Yes46.4%
No53.6%

Double chance

1X40.4%
X259.6%

Match result

Progreso3.9
Draw3.1
Racing Montevideo1.83

Both teams to score

Yes46.4% · 2
No53.6% · 1.73

1X

Chance40.4%
Odds1.8

X2

Chance59.6%
Odds1.22

Progreso

Chance22.8%
Odds3.9

Draw

Chance28.7%
Odds3.1

Racing Montevideo

Chance48.6%
Odds1.83

No half-time prices stored.

No corner prices stored.

Model comparison

Our pick: X2 at 1.22

ProgresoRacing Montevideo
Recent form54%46%
Attack41%59%
Defence60%40%
Goals model41%59%
Head-to-head33%67%
Overall32%68%

Trends

Trend · Primera División

Progreso scored 1.1 per game in the last 9.

Trend · Primera División

Progreso conceded 1.2 per game in the last 9.

Trend · Primera División

Failed to score in 2 of those 9.

Trend · Primera División

Kept a clean sheet in 3 of those 9.

Progreso vs Racing Montevideo: prediction & preview

Uruguay · Primera División · Sat, 26 Sept 2026

Progreso meet Racing Montevideo in the Uruguay, Primera División on 26 September 2026 at 15:00 (Africa/Lagos). The recorded score is 2–1.

On the 1X2 market the shortest price is Racing Montevideo at 1.83. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, that outcome carries about 48.6% of the implied chance, with the other two outcomes sharing the rest. A short price means the market rates that side more likely. It is not a certainty, and the margin means the three raw probabilities add up to more than 100% before they are scaled.

The 2.5-goal line is priced shorter on Under 2.5 (1.62, about 58.1% after the margin). Both teams to score is shorter on No at 1.73.

Season points-per-game rates were not stored on this fixture yet. The odds chart still shows how the 1X2, goals, and both-teams markets are priced.

Progreso vs Racing Montevideo FAQs

4 questions

What time is the Progreso vs Racing Montevideo match?

Kickoff is 15:00 on 26 September 2026, shown in Africa/Lagos.

What are the safest picks for Progreso vs Racing Montevideo?

Racing Montevideo is the safest-priced 1X2 pick at 1.83. The margin-adjusted share is about 48.6%.

What are the over and under 2.5 prices?

Over 2.5 is 2.25 and under 2.5 is 1.62.

Do both teams score on this match?

Both teams to score is priced at 2. That is a market price, not a forecast that both sides will score.