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South Melbourne vs Lions Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips

Australia · Australia CupTue, 15 Sept 2026

South Melbourne

LDWDW

Tue, 15 Sept 202610:30

3 : 1

Full time

Lions

WWLWW

Pre-match win probability

54%South Melbourne25.2%Draw20.8%Lions

Our prediction

2 · South Melbourne

South Melbourne vs Lions listed tip from the board.

Odds4.5
Confidence54%
ResultGraded
Pre-match model probabilityPick and odds as published before kick-off
  • South Melbourne 54%
  • Draw 25.2%
  • Lions 20.8%

Season statistics

Australia Cup · 9 matches each · highlighted side is stronger

South MelbourneLions
Goals scored (avg)
1.22.6
Goals conceded (avg)Lower is better
10.8

Recent form

Last matches · newest first

South Melbourne4W 2D 3L in last 9
  • 29 OctCanberra FC0 – 2South MelbourneW
  • 23 OctSouth Melbourne1 – 1Sydney UnitedD
  • 17 OctSutherland Sharks0 – 1South MelbourneW
  • 10 OctSouth Melbourne1 – 1Melbourne VictoryD
  • 11 SeptOakleigh Cannons2 – 1South MelbourneL
  • 6 SeptSouth Melbourne2 – 1Heidelberg UnitedW
  • 29 AugSunshine Georgies1 – 0South MelbourneL
  • 26 AugPreston Lions1 – 2South MelbourneW
  • 23 AugSouth Melbourne1 – 2Heidelberg UnitedL
Lions8W 0D 1L in last 9
  • 31 OctWollongong Wolves1 – 3LionsW
  • 22 OctLions2 – 1Preston LionsW
  • 18 OctLions1 – 2South HobartL
  • 12 SeptLions1 – 0Peninsula PowerW
  • 30 AugLions4 – 1Peninsula PowerW
  • 25 AugLions4 – 0North Sunshine EaglesW
  • 14 AugMoreton City Excelsior0 – 2LionsW
  • 11 AugLions2 – 0Melbourne CityW
  • 7 AugLions4 – 2Brisbane Roar IIW
H2H
Head to headNo previous meetings found between these sides.

Betting markets

Bookmaker prices with margin removed

Goal lineOverUnder
0.5 goals22.7% · 1.032.3% · 10
1.5 goals20% · 1.175.2% · 4.5
2.5 goals14.6% · 1.610.2% · 2.3
3.5 goals9.4% · 2.515.6% · 1.5

Both teams to score

Yes57.6%
No42.4%

Double chance

1X63.1%
X236.9%

Match result

South Melbourne1.73
Draw3.7
Lions4.5

Both teams to score

Yes57.6% · 1.62
No42.4% · 2.2

1X

Chance63.1%
Odds1.17

X2

Chance36.9%
Odds2

South Melbourne

Chance54%
Odds1.73

Draw

Chance25.2%
Odds3.7

Lions

Chance20.8%
Odds4.5

No half-time prices stored.

No corner prices stored.

Model comparison

Our pick: 2 at 4.5

South MelbourneLions
Recent form37%63%
Attack32%68%
Defence48%52%
Goals model32%68%
Overall72%28%

Trends

Trend · Australia Cup

South Melbourne scored 1.2 per game in the last 9.

Trend · Australia Cup

South Melbourne conceded 1 per game in the last 9.

Trend · Australia Cup

Failed to score in 1 of those 9.

Trend · Australia Cup

Kept a clean sheet in 2 of those 9.

South Melbourne vs Lions: prediction & preview

Australia · Australia Cup · Tue, 15 Sept 2026

South Melbourne meet Lions in the Australia, Australia Cup on 15 September 2026 at 10:30 (Africa/Lagos). The recorded score is 3–1.

On the 1X2 market the shortest price is South Melbourne at 1.73. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, that outcome carries about 54% of the implied chance, with the other two outcomes sharing the rest. A short price means the market rates that side more likely. It is not a certainty, and the margin means the three raw probabilities add up to more than 100% before they are scaled.

The 2.5-goal line is priced shorter on Over 2.5 (1.6, about 59% after the margin). Both teams to score is shorter on Yes at 1.62.

Season points-per-game rates were not stored on this fixture yet. The odds chart still shows how the 1X2, goals, and both-teams markets are priced.

South Melbourne vs Lions FAQs

4 questions

What time is the South Melbourne vs Lions match?

Kickoff is 10:30 on 15 September 2026, shown in Africa/Lagos.

What are the safest picks for South Melbourne vs Lions?

South Melbourne is the safest-priced 1X2 pick at 1.73. The margin-adjusted share is about 54%.

What are the over and under 2.5 prices?

Over 2.5 is 1.6 and under 2.5 is 2.3.

Do both teams score on this match?

Both teams to score is priced at 1.62. That is a market price, not a forecast that both sides will score.