Football odds are the most misconstrued numbers in sport. Almost all people who bet on these numbers consider them a forecast of what will occur, but they represent instead actually a “price of a risk” that is fluctuating via money rather than through opinion. An outcome for which the price is 2.50 is not particularly likely or unlikely. It tells you it costs you a given rate to get in that position in the market, plus the margin on top. When you are able to put a probability to any price and pit it against your own opinion, every bongdalu sportsbook board is read within seconds.
Football Odds Formats Side by Side
Betting board with football odds in decimal, fractional, American and Asian grades the samefootball odds in decimal, fractional and American and Asian grades
The first barrier at bongdalu is in terms of presentation, as the same price on price is depicted in various ways based on where the user is looking at it.
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Format
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Example
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What the number means
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Common in
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Decimal
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2.50
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Total return per unit staked
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Europe
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Fractional
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3/2
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Profit relative to stake
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UK and Ireland
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American
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+150
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Profit per 100 staked
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United States
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Hong Kong
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1.50
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Profit per unit staked
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Asia
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Indonesian
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+1.50
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Profit per unit, signed
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Asia
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Malay
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-0.67
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Signed, reversed logic
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Southeast Asia
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Each row represents the same bet at the same price. Decimal is the simplest because the number includes your stake so the conversion to probability just involves one division across the board.
It should be noted that the Hong Kong and Indonesian formats are an exact match when the price is positive, and only differ in odds on selections. Those who read football odds at multiple regional books should just choose a set format and make it their own and if they are reading odds at three regional books they should just transfer all the numbers into that one format, as this is where mistakes begin to happen when you have to switch back and forth between three systems of counting.
What Football Odds Are Actually Telling You
A note pad application that shows the implied probability percentages behind football odds by a gambler
Format as presentation. The data underlying it is probability and one must perform a computation in order to extract it.
Take 100 and divide it by the decimal price to determine the implied probability. A price of 2.50 equals 40% and a price of 1.50 is 66.7%.
Sum up the implicit probability of all possible outcomes in a market. The sum of the two always come up to over 100% which excess is the Bookmaker Margin.
The standard 1X2 markets will be around 4-8% over round whilst the Asian handicaps are probably closer to 2-4%.
Value only occurs when you believe an outcome is more likely than the probability indicates, not when a price looks inflated.
Model is taken at the open price. Closing prices are the model plus all money and information that came afterwards.
Outperforming the final price is the most reliable evidence of real skill, performance over a short-term period notwithstanding.
This point about margins should be emphasized. If the three prices in the auction total up to 106% then you are paying a premium of 6% just to be in the market, before there’s even an evaluation of the teams. This is precisely the reason why odds-comparison across multiple bookmakers is more important than most punters realize from the outside; a smaller margin means more money in your pocket on every single bet, not just once in a while.
The flip side of this is movement. These are; confirmed team news, ‘weight of money’ and information that the market perceives to be reliable. It’s hard to determine which is which, but a movement will give you some indication of which one is driving it based on the goal and the speed. A gradual drift is usually a reflection of public money, while a sudden move in a few minutes’ time is usually indicative of news or informed liquidity coming in all at once.
Football Odds Across Different Market Types
A match card of football odds for 1X2, totals, handicap and correct score markets.
Margins and behavior do vary by market and it is often useful to have a sense of where the market is the tightest.
1X2 and double chance
The draw is part of the three-way market and the margin is distributed unevenly across the three prices. One of the distinct characteristics of double chance is the fact that both outcomes are grouped in a single price that also includes a much pronounced effective margin than the normal for reducing the risk.
Over and under totals
The goal lines are some of the tighter markets, especially the 2.5 line where most liquidity is achieved. The more distant from center line alternatives have larger margins.
Asian and European handicap
Football cards generally have the smallest margin of any market in the trade and the two way nature and subsequent high turnover makes the prices very sharp in the first place, though they can still get tampered with. European handicap is not a push or refund and should not be confused, then, with the former.
Correct score and scorer markets
These are the biggest spreads on the board. As they are priced off a model rather than based on volume, here, the gap between the actual probability and the football odds offered is at its widest.
In play markets
Prices are updated – every couple of seconds, against a live pricing model. Liquidity decreases, suspensions are many and margins are increased especially at high risk moments like corner or penalty review.
And the glue that holds all of that together into one habit. Make your own prediction about a result before the market opens, transform the market price into a probability, and only wager if there is considerable discrepancy between the two. It takes seconds to put in a bet once you’ve compared the football odds that are available on bongdalu versus the rest of the market and it’s the lowest hanging fruit available to any bettor .
Conclusion
Football odds aren't intimidating when you regard football odds as prices; not predictions. Pick a format and re-create each line into it, multiply 100 by the decimal number to find implied probability, add the market to determine at what margin you are engaging at, juxtapose that number with your own realistic outlook. Keep a watch on markets that are tight and which are expensive, observe which way prices move and why, and grade yourself according to your rating as the close, not the outcome. Consistently applied across the football cards listed on bongdalu, that livescore wall of numbers becomes a set of clearly priced choices.
