How to Use Expected Goals (xG) to Improve Your Betting Accuracy

The right way to make accurate predictions is to use data and not rely on gut feeling. One of the data points that you should use is the expected goals (xG) metric and when this is applied well, it can heighten your betting decision and improve your overall soccer prediction approach. 

This is also important to help you discover value bets and in this post, we are going to show you how to use xG to improve your bets. 

What is xG (Expected Goals)?

Expected Goals or xG as it is fondly called is a probability of how many goals a team is expected to score based on the number of shots they have taken in their previous matches. 

If you see an xG of 0.02 which is a low one, it means that there is a 2% chance of a score for the team while an xG of 0.65 which is higher means that there is a 65% chance that the team will score. 

The xG tells us what the quality of the shot that the team is taking is rather than the number of shots they are taking. 

Why xG matters for betting

So why is it important to look into the xG of a team before deciding to bet on them?

The following are reasons why:

1. It shows you the true nature of a team as a team could be winning but not creating too many chances 
2. Teams that have high xGs can underperform and vice-versa 
3. xG gives you a more predictive model of betting than actual goals

xG vs Actual Goals

This is where you do the work of comparing. 

You compare a team’s xG per match or in 90 minutes vs the number of goals they score. 

When you find a team that has xG rates higher than goals conceded, it means that they create so many chances and are likely not going to be on the radar of bookies for high value games. 

Step-by-step process to use xG for betting accuracy

We have already established that xG is good for betting accuracy but we need to show you how to use it. 

Because not knowing how to use xG can make you to fall short in determining accurate football predictions. 

The following are the steps to follow to use xG to get betting accuracy:

1. Have a good data source for xG: You should use trusted xG data providers like Opta, StatsBomb, Soccervista and Statmuse. 
2. Calculate rolling metrics: We advise that you use rolling windows like the last 5, 10, or 20 matches to find the xG for and xG against the team. 
3. Normalize the records for pace and for leagues: This is because there are different leagues and teams have varying pace. 
4. Check xG against other factors: xG is not the only factor in betting – you should also check on the injuries, home and away form, schedule, and others. 
5. Use xG for betting live and before the match: The team that has more xG even if they concede an early goal could be undervalued and this can present a good opportunity for you

Keep testing and checking your methods to make sure that you are always on track.

Money management and staking

No matter the strategy you use, if you do not manage your money well, you will lose badly. That is why money management is important. 

You should have a budget set before you begin betting and even in that budget, you should have a percentage that you should stake for each bet. 

Do not go overboard and do not try to chase a loss by betting more and doubling down on your bets. 

Common pitfalls and how to avoid them

There are mistakes that you must do well to avoid if you are going to make the most out of this betting strategy and we have listed some of them. 

The following are some of the common pitfalls and how you should avoid them:

1. Overfitting: You should not build complex models when data is limited and it should be regular models and cross-validated data 
2. Data mismatch:This is when you make the mistake of using different xG providers. It is better you stick to one site
3. Ignoring markets: Odds change because the game is changing so do not stick to xG markers when things are shifting based on what the odds say.

Conclusion

xG is a practical way to make the right predictions and forecasts about games to be played and when combined with models like a Soccervista prediction, you are going to be in the driver’s seat when it comes to accurate football predictions. 

This guide has all you need to know in order to use xG to make accurate football predictions. 

FAQs

Is xG a guaranteed way to win?
No xG does not mean a guaranteed way to win. It just helps you in your decision making when you want to choose certain outcomes in football betting. 

Which xG provider is best?
There is no single xG provider that you can think of and say it is the best. But you can always try Opta, StatsMuse, and Understat to get xG data that is reliable to use. 

Can xG predict exact scores?
xG can be used to make correct score predictions but it is not a failproof method so you have to use it with some caution. 

Should I use xG for live betting?
Yes, xG is great when it comes to live betting as it shows you the team with the most attack on goal and that can give you some insights about the next step to take in live betting.